6.8 Risk-Adjusted Projections

6.8.1 Sensitivity Analysis

+------------------------------------------------------------------+
|                    SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS                           |
+------------------------------------------------------------------+

BASE CASE ASSUMPTIONS:
- Implementation timeline: 40 weeks
- Benefit realization: 100% by Year 2
- No scope changes
- No additional hardware required

SCENARIO ANALYSIS:
                        Pessimistic   Base Case   Optimistic
------------------------------------------------------------------
Timeline Extension      +25% (50 wks) 40 weeks    -10% (36 wks)
Benefit Realization     75%           100%        110%
Hardware Contingency    +15%          0%          -5%
Labor Cost Variance     +20%          0%          -10%

5-YEAR NPV IMPACT:
                        Pessimistic   Base Case   Optimistic
------------------------------------------------------------------
Timeline Only           -$X,XXX    $X,XXX         +$X,XXXenefits Only           -$X,XXX  $X,XXX         +$X,XXXHardware Only           -$X,XXX    $X,XXX         +$X,XXXLabor Only              -$X,XXX    $X,XXX         +$X,XXXCombined                -$X,XXX  $X,XXX         +$X,XXX
RISK-ADJUSTED NPV RANGE:
Best Case:              +$X,XXXExpected (Base):        $X,XXXWorst Case:             -$X,XXX==================================================================

6.8.2 Risk Contingency Budget

Risk Category	Probability	Impact	Contingency
Schedule delay	30%	$X,XXX	$X,XXX
Hardware issues	20%	$X,XXX	$X,XXX
Integration complexity	25%	$X,XXX	$X,XXX
Resource availability	15%	$X,XXX	$X,XXX
Scope creep	20%	$X,XXX	$X,XXX
Total Contingency			$X,XXX

Recommended Contingency Reserve: $X,XXX(7.5% of CapEx)

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